There are many topics on which the exam is based on and one of the most basic things that the exam looks for is whether or not you understand the concepts that are being taught. You should not take this exam as a way of proving you know everything there is to know about Bayesian methods. Instead, you should be looking to gain some valuable knowledge of the subject matter before you even take this exam. When you have gained that knowledge, you will be in a much stronger position to answer any questions that the professor may have and will have the ability to pass the test with flying colors.
One of the questions that you may encounter on this exam is a logical problem. This question will ask you to choose a random sample from a population and then come up with some probabilities that this sample is representative of the entire population. Some students are very successful at this question and others are not.
The best students will do well on all logical problems that are presented to them. The problem is that there are many different logical problems that you will face during your career. You will need to study many different types of logical problems in order to gain the knowledge that you need for passing the Bayesian theorem exam.
Logical problems tend to come in two forms; intuitive and deductive. Intuition tends to be based on hunches, gut feeling, and intuition while deductive is more based on facts, logic, and the written word. You can expect to have to solve both intuitive and deductive problems during your time in college.
Many students find that solving these problems is quite difficult. For example, if a student were to ask you, “If a patient comes to see you and tells you that he has a headache, is he telling you the truth?” Your response would be more likely to be based on logic, reason, and fact. However, this same person would also be more likely to give a different response if the same patient came to you and said, “I have a headache”.
If the same problem came about as a result of a survey then you would likely be inclined to give the first answer that comes to your mind, but if you were asked to solve the same problem with some data you would likely be more likely to look at the problem more closely and try to find the real answer that is hidden within. The reason for this is that the survey data is much easier to understand than an intuitive problem. Even though you are using logic to solve your problem, you are also using probability.
This is why it is so important for a student to study many different types of logic problems during their career. Many of the problems that they are presented with will be based on probability and this is a very powerful tool in your arsenal to prove to your professor that you are a good candidate for passing this exam. Remember, when you go to the exam you are using probability as a tool for proving that you are knowledgeable about probability and what type of problems you have solved well.